China and Russia’s Rise in Latin America and Africa
How Russia and China are reshaping global ties outside the West
Over the past decade, quiet shifts have begun to reshape the global business map. Latin America and Africa, traditionally seen as Western spheres of economic influence, are now building deeper, faster-growing ties with China and Russia.
Between 2000 and 2015, Western countries invested an estimated $50–60 billion annually in Africa, often with limited results on infrastructure or local ownership. Since 2016, China has invested more than $120 billion into African projects, including ports, rail systems, and digital infrastructure—with visible outcomes. Russia, though operating on a smaller scale, has increased its presence through military partnerships and energy deals, particularly since 2020.
In Latin America, China’s investments have grown by over 30% annually since 2018, with a focus on minerals, agriculture, and logistics. While Western involvement has slowed, Beijing and Moscow are offering long-term infrastructure and technology agreements that bypass traditional lending models.
This isn’t just geopolitics, it’s economic positioning. And for European investors, operators, and policymakers, the key question is no longer if this trend matters, but how it will shape access, competition, and influence.
Are we entering a new investment cycle? Or a phase of retreat?
The Decline of Western Leverage
For decades, European nations (especially former colonial powers like France) and the United States dominated development projects, trade deals, and strategic diplomacy across many parts of Africa and Latin America. But reality has shifted. Countries are no longer seeking paternalistic oversight—they’re shopping for results.
“France has failed in Africa. People want sovereignty, not speeches.” – Jeune Afrique, 2023
West African nations like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have grown increasingly resistant to French military and diplomatic presence, resulting in formal troop withdrawals and rising nationalistic sentiment. These countries, long associated with France’s sphere of influence, are now turning to alternatives that promise more autonomy.
Reality Check
France invested over €20 billion in West African states between 2000 and 2020, yet countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso still rank among the lowest on the UN Human Development Index. Infrastructure gaps and youth unemployment remain critical.
Guinea’s first electric vehicle was produced through Chinese collaboration within five years of partnership, while no comparable manufacturing milestone was reached under decades of French involvement.
Meanwhile, countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya—often more closely aligned with U.S. financial and development frameworks—have experienced growing debate over the long-term impact of such partnerships. While large sums have flowed through development aid and public-private partnerships, the outcomes have often left local sectors underpowered.
In contrast, Guinea recently unveiled West Africa’s first domestically produced electric vehicle—a development achieved through collaboration with Chinese firms. It may be symbolic, but it reflects an increasingly assertive posture: building, not waiting.
Kenya received more than $1.2 billion in U.S. foreign aid in 2022, but over 35% of its rural population still lacks basic electricity access, and domestic food production is declining.
China has invested more than $23 billion in Latin American infrastructure since 2020, building ports and transport networks with measurable completion timelines—compared to repeated delays in Western-led development bank projects.
Russia signed over 19 bilateral defence and resource agreements with African nations between 2020 and 2023, filling vacuums left by Western military withdrawals.
Agricultural ventures echo the same pattern. Africa’s fertile regions, particularly in Ethiopia, South Africa, and Morocco, have shown promise in viticulture and high-yield crop production. Yet under European guidance, much of this potential remained dormant. Newer collaborations with non-Western partners are changing that trajectory.
The question becomes: is this shift a result of failed Western models, or the rise of clearer, result-driven alternatives?
Maybe this is why countries are pivoting. And maybe the same can be said for parts of Latin America.
Work with traditional powers, be told what to do. Work with China or Russia and see progress. No long lectures, just logistics.
Whether that’s a risk or an opportunity depends on how clearly we’re willing to see what’s changing.
Enter China and Russia
Nigeria’s Minister of Transportation estimated that the project would generate over 10,000 domestic jobs and reduce cargo transport times by 60%.
Provinces like Jujuy have already seen immediate activity. The shift marked a pragmatic turn, suggesting that even leaders who campaign against China may ultimately seek Beijing’s help when institutional alternatives fall short.
That, perhaps, is why more countries are renegotiating, not just the money, but the terms. Many now see that accepting Western aid meant waiting.
Accepting Chinese or Russian deals means moving. But the cost of speed, in some cases, is sovereignty.
For countries in Latin America and Africa, the equation is changing: faster development now, or longer-term autonomy later?
Meanwhile, growing digital infrastructure controlled by Chinese firms introduces new compliance challenges. Standards around surveillance, data use, and licensing are increasingly localised.
What you could once “work around” as a foreign company may now require full transparency—or full withdrawal.
The center of gravity is moving. The playbook must adapt.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s expanding defense and natural resource agreements are not abstract strategies—they’re responses to unmet demand.
In 2021, China signed a $5 billion infrastructure agreement with Nigeria to modernise the country’s rail network. The deal included technology transfer and partial local labor sourcing, unlike previous Western contracts that kept execution fully offshore.
In 2023, Argentina—after years of negotiations and criticism of Chinese influence under President Javier Milei—nonetheless reached out to Beijing for assistance.
According to ChinaGlobalSouth.com, Argentina secured over $14 billion in investment pledges from China, including lithium extraction and renewable energy projects.
Meanwhile, Russia has strengthened ties in countries like Cuba and Venezuela by offering military equipment, fuel subsidies, and direct energy infrastructure development.
Nicaragua signed a cybersecurity and police training cooperation pact with Moscow in late 2022, bypassing U.S.-linked conditions related to governance reform.
Importantly, these partnerships are often conditional—just not in the traditional sense. For example, Suriname was offered port development by a Chinese consortium, but only if it agreed to use Chinese contractors, machinery, and digital standards. The effective cost of the “investment” becomes more visible in the long run
Why Business Leaders Should Care
If you run a business that operates across borders—or plans to—this shift matters. Western companies have long relied on diplomatic stability to navigate new markets. But in regions now tilting toward Beijing and Moscow, the rules of engagement are different.
Market access may increasingly favor Chinese-backed logistics systems or financing frameworks. In 2022, Bolivia rejected a Western mining consortium in favor of a Chinese bidder offering faster execution and lower upfront costs—but with conditions tied to technology and processing rights.
Western sanctions on Russia have also created indirect friction: for example, firms operating in Venezuela have seen delays due to third-party infrastructure linked to Russian systems. Similar dynamics have been observed in Nicaragua and parts of Angola.
Labor relations are shifting too. Where Western investors once had leverage, new regional alliances are emboldening local labor forces. In Kenya and Senegal, worker unions in Chinese-built projects have demanded better terms, pointing to inconsistencies in Western-led projects.
Lessons from Poland’s Playbook
While Western influence shrinks in the Global South, some European nations are charting a different course.
Poland stands out for its pragmatic focus on trade efficiency, localized production, and partnerships with emerging economies.
Between 2015 and 2022, Poland’s economy grew by an average of 4% per year compared to Germany’s 1.3% driven largely by SME support and a resilient export sector (OECD Data).
Rather than clinging to outdated alliances, Poland has prioritized sovereignty-friendly economic relationships.
This includes closer cooperation with Southeast Asian and African states without imposing conditions on governance or ideology—just business.
This should be a wake-up call. As some EU members drift into regulation paralysis, others adapt.
And adaptation doesn’t mean mimicking China or Russia. It means competing with them offering faster, leaner, and clearer deals.
So what can businesses and investors do?
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Don’t overreact to headlines.
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Don’t outsource risk management to ideology.
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Always validate on the ground: hire local legal counsel, send teams to assess operations firsthand.
No serious decision should be made from a spreadsheet alone.
Trade may be global, but understanding must be local. The West’s relevance depends on whether it’s willing to observe, learn—and evolve.
The relationship between China and Africa has been growing in recent years with African countries signing numerous collaborative agreements with the Asian economic giant.
Opening a company in Poland is a smart move. From accessing the vast European market to benefiting from Poland’s favorable tax policies, low operational costs, and government support. Take advantage of Poland’s economic potential
What’s Next for the EU?
As France loses foothold in West Africa, Germany hesitates over energy security, and Brussels burdens firms with red tape, the EU risks becoming strategically irrelevant in the Global South. But this path isn’t fixed.
There’s room for recalibration.
Instead of moralizing, Europe can bring value by:
- Streamlining cross-border trade.
- Offering practical infrastructure and financing.
- Respecting national sovereignty.
We are not looking East or West. We are looking forward.”
— President Nana Akufo-Addo, Ghana-China Cooperation Forum, 2018 (Modern Diplomacy)
European investors and decision-makers must understand this shift through a local lens. Not every African or Latin American country is abandoning Western partners—but many are no longer waiting for them either.
Some EU countries (like Hungary and Slovakia) have maintained warmer ties with Russia despite internal EU criticism. Their rationale? Energy pragmatism, domestic industrial interests, and skepticism of U.S.-led sanctions (Reuters, 2023).
The Business Window Isn't Closing, It's Opening.
Despite global headlines, now is not the time to retreat. For business owners, investors, and trade professionals in Europe, this shift is not a threat—it’s a signal. While the narrative often suggests the world is dividing into unstable camps, the reality is more practical: opportunities remain, and in many places, they are expanding.
Even with the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, which has reshaped supply chains and introduced new compliance risks, a clear takeaway remains: business adapts. You can read more about that dynamic here: Trump’s Europe – X.H
The Global South is not closing its doors—it’s negotiating new terms. The key is to show up prepared, informed, and respectful.
This isn’t a call to choose sides. It’s a call to choose wisely.
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